Journal article
Contrasting Southern Hemisphere Monsoon Response: MidHolocene Orbital Forcing versus Future Greenhouse Gas-Induced Global Warming
Roberta D'Agostino, Josephine R Brown, Aurel Moise, Hanh Nguyen, Pedro L Silva Dias, Johann Jungclaus
Journal of Climate | American Meteorological Society | Published : 2020
Abstract
Past changes of Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoons are less investigated than their northern counterpart because of relatively scarce paleodata. In addition, projections of SH monsoons are less robust than in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we use an energetic framework to shed lights on the mechanisms determining SH monsoonal response to external forcing: precession change at the mid-Holocene versus future greenhouse gas increase (RCP8.5). Mechanisms explaining the monsoon response are investigated by decomposing the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic components. SH monsoons weaken and contract in the multimodel mean of midHolocene simulations as a result of decreased net energy inp..
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Grants
Awarded by FAPESP under the PaCMEDy program
Funding Acknowledgements
R. D. was supported by the JPIBelmont Forum's project PaCMEDy: Paleo Constraint on Monsoon Evolution and Dynamics. P. L. S. D. acknowledges the FAPESP support under the PaCMEDy program (Grant 2015/50686-1). R. D. conceived and designed the study, analyzed the simulations, and prepared the figures and the manuscript. All authors contributed to the interpretation of results and to the writing of the manuscript. We thank David Ferreira and Juergen Bader and the three anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions on the draft. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programmes Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP. PMIP3 and CMIP5 data are available at https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cmip5-dkrz/.Scripts used in the analysis and other supporting information useful to reproduce the author's work are archived by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and can be obtained contacting publications@mpimet.mpg.de.